PREDICT Act

This Act may be cited as the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act or the PREDICT Act.

Chapter 131 of title 5, United States Code, is amended by adding at the end a new subchapter:

In this subchapter:

The term covered individual means any of the following:

(A) A Member of Congress as defined in section 13101 of this title.

(B) A dependent child as defined in such section 13101 or a spouse of a Member of Congress.

(C) An individual or entity with fiduciary duties and the authority to enter into or offer to enter into an agreement, contract, or transaction with respect to prediction markets for any individual described in subparagraphs (A) or (B).

(D) An officer or employee of the Congress as defined in such section 13101.

(E) The President.

(F) The Vice President.

(G) A political appointee.

(H) Each officer or employee in the executive branch, including a special Government employee, as defined in section 202 of title 18, and any officer or employee of an independent agency, who occupies a position classified above GS–15 of the General Schedule or, in the case of positions not under the General Schedule, for which the rate of basic pay is equal to or greater than 120 percent of the minimum rate of basic pay payable for GS–15 of the General Schedule; each member of a uniformed service whose pay grade is at or in excess of O–7 under section 201 of title 37; and each officer or employee in any other position determined by the Director of the Office of Government Ethics to be of equal classification.

(I) A judicial officer as defined in section 13101 of this title.

(J) A judicial employee as defined in section 13101 of this title.

The term independent agency has the meaning given the term independent establishment as defined in section 104 of this title.

The term political appointee means an individual—

(A) occupying a position described under sections 5312 through 5316 of this title (relating to the Executive Schedule);

(B) serving under a noncareer appointment in the Senior Executive Service, as defined under paragraph (7) of section 3132(a) of this title; or

(C) occupying a position in the executive branch of the Government of a confidential or policy-determining character under schedule C of subpart C of part 213 of title 5, Code of Federal Regulations.

The term supervising ethics office —

(A) has the meaning given the term in section 13101 of this title; and

(B) in the case of an independent agency, means the Office of Government Ethics.

No covered individual may enter into, or offer to enter into an agreement, contract, or transaction that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of a specific political event.

The supervising ethics office shall issue interpretive guidance on any relevant term not defined in this subchapter.

Any covered individual who violates the restrictions in section 13152 of this title shall, at the direction of the supervising ethics office—

(A) pay a fee equal to ten percent of the value of the agreement, contract, or transaction in violation; and

(B) disgorge the profits of any agreement, contract, or transaction that violates the provisions of such section 13152.

A penalty imposed under paragraph (1)(B) shall be payable into the Treasury.

A covered individual may not pay any of the penalties under this section from the following sources:

(1) The Members’ Representational Allowance.

(2) The Senators’ Official Personnel and Office Expense Account.

(3) Any contribution (as defined in section 301(8) of the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (52 U.S.C. 30101(8))) accepted as a candidate, and any other donation received as support for activities of the individual as a holder of Federal office.

(4) Any other source of funds, other than a salary, available to such individual through employment or service in the Federal Government.

Each supervising ethics office shall publish on a publicly available website a description of—

(1) each fine assessed by the supervising ethics office pursuant to this section;

(2) the reason why each such fine was assessed; and

(3) the result of each assessment.

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The table of contents for chapter 131 of title 5, United States Code, is amended by adding at the end the following: